THE GOVERNMENT should brace itself for a potential surge in coronavirus infections because of the Delta variant from India, according to researchers from the country’s premier university.
The Octa Research Group on Sunday noted that based on experience, cases multiply when new variants of the coronavirus arrive.
“Over the past year and a half, we had a surge when there was a new variant,” molecular biologist Nicanor Austriaco, a member of the research group, told the ABS-CBN News TeleRadyo. “It’s now coming down after the arrival of Alpha and Gamma variants. Now we have to protect ourselves against Delta,” he said.
The Alpha coronavirus variant was first detected in the United Kingdom, while the Gamma variant came from Brazil and Japan. The Delta variant is considered to be the most concerning variant seen yet.
OCTA was set to recommend lockdown levels for Metro Manila for July later on Sunday or early Monday.
The variants from India and Brazil are swiftly overthrowing the variant from the UK, which used to be the most-dreaded, in the United States. Health experts are worried that continued outbreaks would continue in the US because of these variants, unless vaccination efforts could be boosted further.
The UK variant, which is 50% more transmissible than the version from Wuhan China swept the US at the start of the year. It was also linked to a surge in infections in the UK last fall, accounting for more than 90% of cases there.
In the US, the UK variant became the predominant strain in a matter of months and accounted for about 70% of cases by end-April.
The Indian coronavirus variant is considered the most concerning because it is said to be 50% to 60% more infectious and may cause a more severe disease.
When the Indian variant first appeared in the UK at the start of April, it rapidly overcame the Alpha variant and now accounts for 90% of new cases.
The variant from Brazil is said to be not as transmissible but may slightly affect the effectiveness of vaccines.
The Department of Health (DoH) reported 6,096 coronavirus infections on Sunday, bringing the total to 1.4 million.
The death toll rose by 128 to 24,372, while recoveries increased by 6,912 to 1.3 million, it said.
There were 52,570 active cases, 1.4% of which were critical, 89.5% were mild, 5.6% did not show symptoms, 2% were severe and 1.48% were moderate.
The agency said 15 duplicates had been removed from the tally, 13 of which were tagged as recoveries.
Sixty-nine cases tagged as recoveries were reclassified as deaths. Three laboratories failed to submit data on June 25, the agency said.
About 13.8 million Filipinos have been tested for the coronavirus as of June 25, according to DoH’s tracker website.
The coronavirus has sickened about 181.6 million and killed 3.9 million people worldwide, according to the Worldometers website, citing various sources including data from the World Health Organization.
About 166.1 million people have recovered, it said.
Mr. Austriaco said Metro Manila and eight other major economic hubs could reach herd immunity by year-end if the Indian variant is contained.
“Given the numbers, our hope that we will reach herd immunity in the National Capital Region Plus 8 by Christmas is reasonable,” he said, referring to the provinces of Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga and Rizal, as well as Metro Cebu and Metro Davao. “This does not take into account the Delta variant.”
DoH earlier said it was seeking to vaccinate at least 108,000 people daily in these areas as more vaccines arrive.
The Philippines has reported 17 cases of the Delta variant, including one death. There had been no community transmission of the variant, Health authorities said earlier.
The government had given out 8.9 million coronavirus vaccines as of June 22. About 2.25 million Filipinos have been fully vaccinated out of a 58-million target.
It identified 10 more areas that are experiencing rise in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, namely, Cagayan de Oro, Bacolod, Baguio, Zamboanga, Dumaguete, Tuguegarao, General Santos, Naga, Legazpi, and Iloilo City, that will be included in the COVID-19 vaccination priority. — Norman P. Aquino and VMMV